What to Expect in Arizona’s Housing Market as We Step Into 2026
by Olga Boyke–Your Trusted Arizona Realtor
As we close out 2025, I’ve been having a lot of conversations with clients who are asking the same thing: “What’s next for Arizona real estate?” It’s a fair question. This year has been full of ups and downs. Mortgage rates jumped around, sellers gained confidence, buyers pulled back, and inventory finally started to loosen up.
The truth is, the next few months will be important. How the market behaves in late 2025 will give us a pretty good idea of what 2026 might look like. So let me share what I’m watching closely, and what I think it means for both buyers and sellers.
Why Mortgage Rates Still Hold the Key
I know, we’re all tired of talking about mortgage rates. But they really do set the tone for everything else.
Here’s what I’m seeing:
Rates are sitting in the mid-6 percent range right now. That’s better than last year, but not exactly “cheap money.”
If we see rates dip closer to 6 or even into the high 5s, I expect more buyers to jump back in.
If rates climb again above 7 percent, demand could cool, and sellers may have to adjust expectations.
Bottom line: rates don’t move in a straight line, and buyers who stay prepared will be in the best position to take advantage of any dips.
Advice for Sellers: Timing and Presentation Matter More Than Ever
If you are planning to sell your home soon, here’s the reality. Days on market are stretching, especially in the mid-range. Buyers have more breathing room, which means you need to stand out.
Homes that are clean, updated, and staged are selling faster and for stronger prices.
The first half of Q4 (October through mid-November) tends to bring more motivated buyers. By December, things usually slow down.
Be open to concessions if your market is softer. Closing cost help or a flexible timeline can make your home more appealing without dropping the price drastically.
Not all neighborhoods are the same, though. Some high-demand communities, especially in the luxury space, still have the edge.
Advice for Buyers: Your Patience Is Paying Off
For buyers, the good news is you finally have a bit more leverage.
You can ask for concessions and, in some cases, even negotiate the price.
Rate locks are important. If you see a favorable rate, lock it in and ask about float-down options just in case rates improve further.
Be selective. The best properties will hold their value even if the market shifts. If you can stretch for quality, it will pay off in the long run.
Remember, a lot of homes coming on the market now are from sellers who stayed put with very low mortgages for years. That hidden supply could create more opportunities as we head into 2026.
What 2026 Might Bring
The way I see it, we have three possible paths next year:
If rates drop below 6 percent, demand could surge and prices may climb again.
If rates hold steady in the mid-6s, we’ll likely see a steady but uneven market. Some areas will do well while others stay flat.
If rates rise above 7 percent, buyers will back off, and sellers will need to get creative to attract offers.
No matter what happens, I don’t expect dramatic crashes. Arizona continues to attract people and jobs, and that keeps housing demand strong.
This year has taught us that the housing market is no longer moving in one clear direction. It’s local, it’s nuanced, and it rewards people who are prepared. If you’re a buyer, don’t assume rates will keep falling forever. If you’re a seller, don’t expect bidding wars unless your home is truly exceptional.
What I can promise is this: there are opportunities on both sides, but they take strategy. Whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, let’s talk through your goals and make a plan that works for you.
2026 could be the year Arizona’s market finds its balance. And I’d love to help you find your place in it.
