Arizona’s Real Estate Market Is Static, but Smart Buyers Are Quietly Moving In

by Olga Boyke–Your Local Arizona Real Estate Partner

You’ve probably heard that the Arizona real estate market is a little “quiet” right now. Inventory is up, price growth has slowed, and mortgage rates are still higher than many would like. But let me let you in on something seasoned buyers already know — these are the conditions that quietly favor smart buyers.

We’re in a static market, and while that may sound dull on the surface, it is actually filled with opportunity if you know where to look.

More Inventory Means More Choice and More Power

According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales dropped 2.7 percent from May to June. At the same time, inventory rose to 4.7 months of supply. That means homes are not flying off the market like they were a year or two ago. For buyers, this is great news. It translates to less competition, more room to negotiate, and more time to make thoughtful decisions.

Even new home inventory is on the rise. June’s new home supply hit 9.8 months, the highest level since late 2022. Builders are offering incentives, covering closing costs, or throwing in upgrades just to get deals across the finish line. As a buyer, you now have the leverage that simply did not exist during the height of the market.

Sellers Are More Flexible Than You Think

Many sellers are starting to shift their mindset. Some who need to relocate or are already under contract on another home may be more open to negotiation. According to Redfin, buyers should pay attention to listings that have been sitting on the market for over a month without a price drop. Often, these sellers are ready to deal. They just don’t want to reduce the asking price publicly.

In other words, if you’re pre-approved and ready to make an offer, you can get creative. Ask for seller credits, request repairs, or offer below asking if the home has been lingering for weeks. These conversations are finally back on the table.

Mortgage Rates Are High, But There’s a Catch

Yes, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is averaging around 6.74 percent. And yes, that’s still high compared to pandemic lows. But perspective matters. According to Fannie Mae, rates could dip to 6.4 percent by the end of the year, but no one is expecting them to crash.

At the same time, Redfin reports that the median monthly mortgage payment has fallen to $2,679, the lowest it has been in nearly five months. This suggests that while borrowing costs remain elevated, affordability is quietly improving. The combination of more inventory and smaller monthly payments is shifting the balance toward buyers.

Demand Will Return, and So Will Competition

One of the biggest reasons to act now is simple — the calm won’t last. Arizona remains one of the most desirable destinations in the country. Between our weather, lifestyle, and economic growth, people continue to move here month after month.

Once interest rates start to drop even slightly, demand is likely to pick up again. Buyers sitting on the sidelines will re-enter the market, and the negotiating power you have now could vanish quickly. Acting during a quiet market is how many buyers secure better prices, better terms, and less stress.

What I’m Seeing Right Now in Arizona

In Phoenix and surrounding areas, I am noticing a shift in seller behavior. Homes that would have attracted multiple offers last year are now getting just a few showings a week. Sellers are offering to cover closing costs or reduce price in exchange for a quicker sale. Some are investing in last-minute upgrades just to stand out.

Meanwhile, serious buyers are stepping in. They are negotiating home warranties, seller-paid rate buydowns, and extended closing timelines that fit their needs. They are not rushing, and they are not overpaying. This kind of calm, thoughtful buying rarely happens during a boom.

Why This Market May Not Last Long

Inventory tends to shrink in the second half of the year as sellers take their homes off the market during the holidays. That gives buyers a small window this summer and early fall to explore more listings and take advantage of greater supply.

Additionally, once there is any economic signal that inflation is under control, we may see rates move just enough to trigger more activity. When that happens, you’ll likely see multiple-offer situations return. Maybe not at the frenzy level of 2021, but enough to impact pricing and negotiations again.

Don’t Wait for Perfect Conditions.
If you are waiting for mortgage rates to drop, home prices to fall, and inventory to rise even more, you are likely waiting for a scenario that will never happen all at once. Smart buyers take action when the market is balanced. That is what we have now. Not red-hot, not ice-cold, but balanced. And balance always favors the prepared.

If you are thinking about buying, let’s talk. I can help you understand where you stand, what you can afford, and what opportunities are out there right now. Whether you are just starting to look or ready to make an offer, we can build a strategy that makes sense for your goals.

Arizona’s market may be standing still, but that doesn’t mean you have to. Let’s find your next move while the time is right.